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Great teams that are going through a bad time

Great teams that are going through a bad time
A great emblem can come from five consecutive defeats and still, in the next game,against an average team, it will still remain as favorite. How to take advantage of a bad time for a great team?

The bettor's ability to make a good qualitative analysis will make all the difference when investing in a valueable odd.
by José Marques   |   comments 0

Sometimes we come across great teams that are going through a bad time. The expectation is always high, the names of the players and the weight of the jersey always influence the market. However, is the status sufficient, in itself, to assign a high probability of victory to a particular team?

The most current media case is that of Chelsea, as the London club, after being champion last season, on the twenty-fourth round occupies the fourteenth place in the Premier League.

How to take advantage of a bad time for a great team?

1 Pre-match analysis

Being a big club, the market will always give this team an “opportunity”. In other words, a great emblem can come from five consecutive defeats that in the next game against an average team it will still remain as favorite. To a certain extent, it is even understood why (individual quality of the players), however, the dark period that the team goes through is almost always overlooked by the market and a share that should be between 1.80-2.00, is often between 1.40-1.60.

2 Early game analysis

It is when the ball is rolling that the best opportunities to enter the market can be discovered. The bettor's qualitative ability will make all the difference at the time of entry, that is, when investing in a valueable odd.

The knowledge of the teams and their most influential players is essential when making decisions, for example: the Belgian Hazard, in Chelsea, last season was a major player, and this season he has been underperforming by a lot.

Usually, the first signs of weakness that a large team that is going through a bad moment are:
  • lack of confidence of the players in the one-to-one,
  • wrong passes,
  • maintaining possession of the ball on the defensive line with difficulties in progression,
  • long distance shots,
  • break of rhythm in the replacement of the ball in play.

In this scenario, the bettor who can more quickly understand the state of the team, especially in the first fifteen minutes of the game, is the one who will buy the most mismatched odd, that is, a high value share.

3 Analysis after a big team that is going through a bad phase scores the first goal of the match

ATTENTION: if the team in bad shape scores the first goal of the game, it is necessary to pay special attention and not make any hasty decisions.

Let's imagine that the big team started the game with a 1.50 odd and managed to score the first goal of the match in the 20th minute. After that, the share of the big team will drop significantly, to 1.15-1.20, that is, the price for the “Draw or opposite team” will be between 4.00-4.50.

It is at this point that the same analysis made at the beginning of the game applies, and it is possible to add two more signs that add value to the odd of the “Draw or opposite team” market:
  • nervousness shown by the big team because they are in an advantageous situation, with the possibility of reversing the period they are going through;
  • and the ability of the non-favorite emblem to create dangerous situations.

4 Analysis if the game is tied at 60'

This is another period that deserves to be highlighted. The time factor is very important in the players' subconscious, as a large team that is going through a bad time will start to despair when the game is tied and begins to reach the end.

At this point, it is possible to find odds of great value, and the bettor who can decipher the current status of the team will have two trump cards on his side:
  • the time factor,
  • and the desperation of the big club.
In other words, normally, if the match is tied in the last half hour, all the signs of the analysis made at the beginning of the match tend to worsen, being that, even so, the market continues, normally, to believe in the victory of the big team that is going through a bad phase.

It is important to note that it is because of this “skepticism” of the market that it is possible to discover valuable bets. If all of this happens, it is a good time to invest in the “Draw or opposing team” market before, obviously, the market realizes that the team cannot give an answer and starts adjusting.

Final considerations

  • To apply this strategy, some patience is needed in obtaining the information transmitted by the game itself and by the market;
  • It is important to master the concept of value odd, with the aim of not investing indiscriminately in any price;
  • Knowing the moment of both teams / players and their respective weaknesses / strengths is essential when making a decision;
  • It is necessary to pay attention if the team that is going through a bad moment had any change in its structure, for example, change of coach.


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