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Studying goal moments: Minutes and Competitions

Studying goal moments: Minutes and Competitions
Knowing at which minutes the goals happen most often, what time of the game, and even in which competitions and phases, can be fundamental to making a bet.
by Academia   |   comments 0

In this tutorial we will analyze more deeply the data in which minutes the goals happen more frequently or in which competitions there is more security in these statistics, trying to make the reader feel more secure in their bets and have a greater understanding, being able to improve their percentage hit.

First or second half?

The second half is where most of the goals happen, and this is proven in the vast majority of competitions. In the Brazilian championship, for example, so far 237 goals have been scored in the first half, and 315 goals in the second half.

This also applies to several other national and international competitions, due to the teams going for "all or nothing" in the second half, where for example they are losing the game and attack in excess looking for the goal, making them actually reach the goal, or leave spaces for the opponent to enjoy, score the goal and settle the match for good.
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Goal times

Still analyzing the Brazilian Championship until the twenty-sixth round we have the following numbers:

  • 0 to 15 minutes: 68 goals
  • 16 to 30 minutes: 71 goals
  • 31 to 45 minutes: 98 goals
  • 46 to 60 minutes: 92 goals
  • 61 to 75 minutes: 102 goals
  • 76 to 90 minutes: 121 goals
It is important to highlight that the last 15 minutes of the game (from 76 minutes to 90) was the time where most of the goals were scored in Serie B, Copa do Brasil and Copa Libertadores.

For a new bettor this will be new. There is a large number of punters who feel insecure in betting when there are ten or fifteen minutes left to finish a game, with the argument “the game is ending and Team X will not have time to score”. However, it is mathematically proven that in the vast majority of championships, most of the goals happen precisely in these minutes. In addition, it is important to remember that the odds (odds) tend to rise, due to the game being over and the bookmaker is experiencing a dilemma and being “forced” to increase the values.

These numbers and advice should not be seen as something 100% certain and that will give you reasons to always bet on goals in these minutes.

But if understood correctly, the bettor will have much more confidence to bet, if it is analyzing and following a game where it is concluded that a certain team will win, or that the goals will happen. So you don't have to be so afraid of the argument “the game is ending, there won't be enough time for the goal to happen”. Now we know that these are the moments for goals!

It is worth mentioning that also in Serie A, Serie B, Copa do Brasil and Copa Libertadores, the minutes with the least goals are from the first minute up to fifteen minutes. Moment where the teams are still studying and do not attack with such aggressiveness, being that the majority of the beginning of games are more calm and cautious.

Competitions and Goals

It must be remembered that depending on the style of the competition, goals usually appear more often in the second half.

A good example is the Copa Libertadores and the World Cup, competitions where there is great equality between the teams, and which still involves a Group Stage, in addition to this they involve games where a defeat is enough for elimination. So there is more marking, caution and respect than usual.

(We could use the Copa do Brasil as an example, but there are many uneven games like Cruzeiro X Santa Rita, Santos X Princesa dos Solimões, Internacional X Remo, which do not reflect the reality of other competitions, and thus would give us “lying” numbers).

First of all, we highlight the Brasileirão Serie A and Serie B which play through game weeks and shows us the following numbers:

  • Serie A: 43% of the goals were scored in the first half.
  • Serie B: 45% of the goals were scored in the first half.

In championships that are not just judged with points, we have lower percentages of goals in the first forty-five minutes...

  • Libertadores 35% in the first half
  • World Cup 39% first half

Within this thought it is still necessary to highlight that the closer the final stages are, the lower the percentage of goals in the first half, see the numbers below:

  • 2014 World Cup Final: 90 minutes without a goal (1X0 Germany in overtime).
  • 2010 World Cup Final: 90 minutes without a goal (1X0 Spain in overtime).
  • 2006 World Cup Final: Two goals in the first half (Italy 1X1 France).
  • 2002 World Cup Final: First half without a goal (2X0 Brazil, both goals in the second half, Ronaldo at 67' and 79').
  • 1998 World Cup Final: Two goals in the first half (France 3X0 Brazil).
  • 1994 World Cup final: 90 minutes without a goal (Brazil 0X0 Italy).
  • 1990 World Cup final: 85 minutes without a goal (Germany 1X0 Argentina, Andreas Brehme at 85').
  • 1986 World Cup final: Even in a game with five goals, only one happened in the first half. (Argentina 3X2 Germany).

As for the Copa Libertadores, we can see that in the last eight games of the finals (considering the first leg and the second leg), less than 2.5 goals occurred in all of them, although the vast majority of goals occurred in the second half.

  • 2011 - Santos X Peñarol - First leg: 0X0 / Second leg: 2X1 Santos (all goals came in the second half).
  • 2012 - Boca Juniors X Corinthians - First leg: 1X1 / Second leg: 2X1 Corinthians (all goals were scored in the second half).
  • 2013 - Atlético Mineiro X Olimpia - First leg: 2X0 Olimpia / Second leg: 2X0 Atlético Mineiro (three of the four goals were scored in the second half).
  • 2014 - Nacional X San Lorenzo - First leg: 1X1 / Second leg: 1X0 San Lorenzo (two of the three goals were scored in the second half).

Dear reader, be sure this is not just a coincidence, and if you do a search on other competitions, you will see that most of them also follow these statistics. So it should be known that in a final, most of the time there will be few goals and with the minority still being scored in the first half.

Resumindo:

So with more data about the goals, from the minutes, game halves (first or second) and also about the competitions and their phases, we hope that readers will improve their view on the subject and that this data will help them in their evolution as bettors, improving their analysis, increasing their field of vision regarding goals, and giving them more basis for their bets!


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