A very important issue that goes unnoticed by most inexperienced bettors is knowing how to calculate the margins that bookmakers apply to the odds of a football match. What the absolute majority do is just look at how much is being offered for the victory of one of the teams (or draw), but without delving into these numbers to know what value the house is charging for profit on that bet. In the long run this becomes a huge differentiator, as margins vary widely from one company to another.
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So before learning to calculate, now you know: bookmakers do not offer 100% real probabilities that an event will occur, as they include a small percentage, which is their way of getting their profits. This is natural, you seek to profit, so does the bookmaker, everything is ok. The important thing is to know how much she is charging in margin, so that you can make your assessment and conclude if it is fair or not.
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Taking as an example the most betting market, that is, the 1v2 (linear bet – choose Team A, tie or Team B), let's do the following calculation.
The bookmaker is offering these odds for Coritiba x Vasco, Série B – Brasileirão:
Coritiba: 2.39
Vasco: 3.41
Tie: 3.19
The first step is to take these individual probabilities and turn them into decimal probabilities. For this use this calculation: (1/actual probability).
Coritiba: (1 / 2.39 = 0.418)
Vasco: (1 / 3.41 = 0.293)
Tie: (1 / 3.19 = 0.313)
Before proceeding with the calculation, the important detail of these numbers is the sample of the chances that each result has of winning, according to the evaluation of the bookmaker. Coritiba will have a 41.8% win, Vasco 29.3% and a tie 31.3%.
Following the calculation, now just play this formula:
(Probability Team A) + (Probability Team B) + (Tie Probability) – 1
(0.418) + (0.293) + (0.313) -1 = 0.024, that is, 2.4%
For this match, the bookmaker is charging a 2.4% margin.
That means if you just added the above 3 odds, it would be 102.4%. To be probabilities with fair and actual values, it would have to be close to 100%. Anything above that is the bookmaker's margin. As we've already said, it's a natural procedure, but it's always important to assess how much is being charged, as it varies from match to match, and especially from bookmaker to bookmaker.
Quietly, some platform will be charging 12% in this duel, against 2.4%. In this case, the odds would be 2.10 for Coritiba to win, 3.10 for Vasco to win, and 2.90 for a tie to occur. If you notice, it's a lot of difference from one house to another, greatly distorting the real chances of each result working. Even though it is an acceptable procedure and does not have a limit, we can say that in this case a very high amount is being charged. It is up to the bettor to assess the advantages and disadvantages, or what he considers fair (or not) in those values.
As mentioned at the beginning of the text, in the long-term gains this ends up making a lot of difference, and a greater profit may not be obtained, just for not having done the necessary evaluation and calculations, aiming at professionalization in this field. Great bettors are successful not just because they know how to correctly analyze the odds of a bet, but because they evaluate every detail of them, including what we teach today. I hope it's profitable for you, good luck!
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